Every tick on Kalshi and Polymarket01, paired with what the world knew at that moment. News, social, polling, on-chain, telemetry — synchronized, archived forever.
$ eph query WILL_FED_CUT_MAY_2026 --range 2026-01-01..2026-04-17 --context on ┌─────────────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────────────────────────┐ │ timestamp │ yes │ no │ volume │ context │ ├─────────────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────────────────────────┤ │ 01-02 14:33 │ 0.42 │ 0.58 │ 24100 │ CPI 2.8% YoY │ │ 01-15 09:15 │ 0.51 │ 0.49 │ 38402 │ Powell hawkish, Econ Club │ │ 02-28 16:00 │ 0.63 │ 0.37 │ 67100 │ NFP miss, 143k v 190k │ │ 03-19 14:00 │ 0.72 │ 0.28 │ 89240 │ FOMC hold, dots softened │ │ 04-17 12:00 │ 0.691 │ 0.309 │ 12500 │ <illustrative> │ └─────────────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────────────────────────┘ price history / yes leg 1s cadence 0.80 ┤ ▂▄▆ 0.70 ┤ ▁▂▄▆██████▆ 0.60 ┤ ▁▂▄▆████████████████▅ 0.50 ┤ ▁▁▂▂▃▄▅▆▇███████████████████▅ 0.40 ┤▁▁▁▂▂▃▃▄▅████████████████████████████▃ └───────────────────────────────────────────────── JAN FEB MAR APR ▸ 287,419 rows · 1.3 MB parquet · 14 context fields ▸ joined to L2 book depth, r/federalreserve, Bloomberg econ wire, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, FOMC dot-plot deltas.
Kalshi is CFTC regulated. Polymarket returned to US retail. Volume crossed ten billion dollars in 2025. Every major bank has a prediction market desk under research. There is still no Bloomberg, no Refinitiv, no Koyfin. Tick data vendors do not exist.
A competitor who starts in 2028 cannot retroactively capture what we capture during this launch window. Every day the archive runs, it becomes harder to replicate. This is not a feature that can be cloned. It is a position in time, and the clock starts at Q3 2026.
Backtesting event markets requires the full knowledge state at each timestamp — news, social, polls, weather, game scores. Ephemeris archives the world around every tick, synchronized to the second. Nobody else does this.
{
"ts": "2024-11-05T23:14:07Z",
"market": "polymarket:trump-wins-2024",
"yes": 0.843, "no": 0.157,
"orderbook": { "bids": [[0.842, 18200], [0.841, 47510]], "asks": [[0.844, 11200]] },
"volume_1m": 2148530,
"context": {
"headlines": [
{ "src": "AP", "ts": "23:12:41Z", "txt": "Trump projected winner in PA per AP" },
{ "src": "Bloomberg", "ts": "23:10:02Z", "txt": "Harris campaign halts call to supporters" }
],
"reddit": { "r/politics": { "front_page_score": 0.91, "velocity": "+412/min" } },
"polls": { "silver_bulletin_538": { "trump_ev": 276, "delta_1h": "+9" } }
}
}
Q3 2026. No archive exists today. Year-1 targets: 2.4 billion market ticks across Kalshi and Polymarket, 18TB of synchronized context, roughly 120GB per week growth. We are starting now because every day a competitor waits, they lose a day of history they cannot recover.
1-second cadence for liquid contracts on both venues. Target wire-to-disk under 400ms for Kalshi, under 900ms for Polymarket. Context sampled at 15s to 5min depending on source. Engineering in progress; exact numbers at launch.
Redistribution rights will be negotiated with Kalshi and Polymarket before public launch. Early access is research and internal-use only, under a standard data license. A public commercial API follows once rights are in place.
Academic research: free. Individual traders: free tier plus metered query-volume pricing. Funds and institutions: custom, based on feed breadth and refresh rate. Quoted on request.
Because starting now is the point. Today, no archive exists. In twelve months, one will, and it will belong to whoever is running through this window. The moat is time itself. A competitor who arrives in 2028 cannot retrieve what we capture in 2026 and 2027, no matter how good their engineers are.